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AI Initiative Economy

Purpose​

This document describes how AI Conveyor defines, estimates, and accounts for the target and actual economic impact of AI initiatives.

Key ideas​

  • Impact types: revenue growth, cost reduction, risk reduction (including regulatory), improvement of customer metrics — each with defined units of measurement and a calculation method.
  • Released capacity: reducing task time is not money by itself. It becomes impact only through a defined value path and capture mechanism.
  • Target impact: estimated at the idea/experiment stage; refined at the prototype stage; recorded in the registry for comparison against the actual figure.
  • Actual impact: calculated using an agreed methodology after going to production; attribution (A/B tests, control groups, calculation models) for a well-grounded attribution of impact to the initiative.
  • Aggregation: consolidated impact across the portfolio and broken down by departments/domains for reporting.

How it works​

The model is used when filling in the "target/actual impact" fields of the initiative entity and in the measure-ai-impact playbook. Calculations and assumptions are documented for audit and for alignment with finance/business. Results feed into portfolio KPIs (portfolio-kpis) and cases. Value realization details are in value-realization.

Before calculation, the value chain must be described:

task change → operational metric → business metric → capture mechanism → financial verification

For example, "contract review became 9 hours faster" is a capacity effect. It becomes financial impact only if:

  • the team processed more volume and output increased;
  • backlog or SLA improved;
  • a planned hire or contractor expansion was cancelled;
  • the end-to-end deal cycle accelerated;
  • the risk of error, fine, rework, or operational loss decreased.

If there is no such mechanism, the model records operational impact, not financial savings.

Saved-hours calculation rule​

The "hours × rate" formula can be used only as an intermediate estimate of released capacity. To recognize economic impact, the initiative must specify:

  • baseline and measurement period;
  • counterfactual: what would have happened without the initiative;
  • value path to a business metric;
  • impact capture mechanism;
  • impact owner;
  • full TCO;
  • verification by business or finance.

See the detailed analysis: Saved hours are not ROI.